BIGBOB'S SARATOGA SPRINT-FILLIES PREVIEW
Distance 1400 Track England GoodBlack Lotus' enters the finals with a 3 horse entry. Sakura has had an excellent season and is the pre-race favorite. She is versatile and can run on multiple surfaces, but has had the most success this season on a firm turf course. Sakura's entry mate Dream Steal won the Triple Crown Sprint at this distance but definitely favors a fast track over any of the turf surfaces. The 3rd part of the entry, First Up, is a nice sprinter who favors 1000 and 1200 over today's distance.Maple Leaf Farms has a big 3 horse entry also. Rusty's Princess is no longer the unstoppable force that she was a couple of seasons ago, but she likes the distance and can run on virtually anything. She is definitely a danger to win it all. Her stable mate Center Ice Loonie can handle the distance and will be dangerous if the turf is yielding. Ap Kong Queen is not quite at the level as her stable mates and would need her preferred surface, a good track, to have any chance at grabbing a share.Tockyocky's Black Lightning has stepped up her game as a 4 year old and can contend for top honors if the turf is firm. Her entry mate Toc Kill at Will is very versatile and can run the distance, but she is definitely the weaker part of the entry.Filante's Hurricane Allie appears to have lost a step as a 4 year old. She finished 2nd in the Juvenile Sprint at this distance on a soft turf course and would need a similar surface to get a share of the purse. Chrisman's Rooster's Flute came 2nd in last season's sprint final on a muddy track. Her best races this season have also been in the mud, although she has some decent efforts on a soft turf course. Her entry mate Toc Black Plague appears to be an outsider in the field and an in-the-money finish would be a surprise.McKinleys' Miss Independence has had a nice season and is a consistent and tough filly. She likes a good turf course and could surprise on that surface. Tuna Stables' Zarzuela won this race two seasons back on a yielding turf course. She also has a 2nd and a 3rd in other sprint finals. She won a qualifier on a good turf course at 1200 and another in the mud at 1400. She cannot be ignored if she gets some racing luck. Myrtle's Knackery's Silent Reward was the shocking winner of last season's Saratoga Sprint. She loves the mud and the 1200 distance and today's distance and surface make her a longshot in this field. RACE ANALYSISAlthough there look like there are two big favorites in this race, it would not be a surprise to see an upset. There are a couple of great champions in Rusty's Princess and Sakura. But 1400 is not the Princess' best distance and a good turf course is not the preferred surface for Sakura. Toc Black Lightening and AP Kong Queen both like a good turf course and should contend for a share. Zarzuela is a past champion who likes a good turf and shows good races at the distance. She could definitely surprise if the breaks go her way. Sakura can certainly win it all but I am picking against her today. Rusty's Princess is my pick to win the race. If you are looking for long shot with a chance to pull off a major upset, Miss Independence is a possibility. Good luck to all. Bob
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