BIGBOB'S TRIPLE CROWN SPRINT-COLTS PREVIEW
Distance 1400 Track England Good Tockyocky's Toc Black Mamba won last season's Juvenile Sprint and is a threat to repeat. On a firm or good surface he would be tough to beat. Toc's powerhouse barn has 2 other runners in the race. Toc Evil Empire is a versatile colt who seems to prefer a soft or yielding turf course. Kudos appears to be a 1000 meter specialist who also has some good races at 1200, but not at 1400. Evil Racing's Fourstardave loves this distance but seems to favor the dirt over the turf. But he shows nice races on a firm and good turf course and is a worthy contender capable of a five star performance. His stable mate Red Sky Mine was a mid-season auction steal for Evil. He appears to strongly prefer the mud but may grab a share on a yielding turf course.Chrisman has a dangerous 3 horse entry. His first horse, Jaime Lannister favors 1200 over today's 1400 distance, but does show a win in a Saturday Stars race at 1400. Cozzene, true to her racing namesake, prefers the turf and likes the distance. Both horses need a firm or good turf course to run their best. His 3rd horse Saratoga Kid(NY) made the finals thanks to a nice effort in the mud and would be a surprise on the turf.Gebbs' Tr Returns is another colt that favors a firm surface. He does not look like he can grab the top spot, but has a chance to be in the money if he gets his preferred surface. Rio Co's Rio Dundee won a qualifier at 1200 in the mud and appears to be a little better at that distance. He also prefers the mud although he won a Saturday Stars Race at this distance on a yielding turf course. Colwells End's Vegas Stallion seems to prefer the mud and a longer distance. He has a couple of good races on a soft turf course but will need some racing luck to grab a share. Filante Stable's Quality Sprint loves the mud, but his best races have been at 1200. With racing luck, he could grab a share but it would a surprise to see him win it all. His stable mate Traxide Trouble made the finals thanks to a surprise win at this distance in the final qualifier. That win was in the mud, but this runner shows some ability on good, soft, and yielding surfaces. He could surprise.Boom Stables' Boom Champ prefers the classic distances to today's sprint distance, but unlike many other runners, he likes the turf, and could sneak in for a share. RACE ANALYSISOver half the field had their best efforts on the dirt and do not appear to be contenders for the top spot here. A couple of others like Traxide Trouble and Boom Champ are outsiders who could surprise for a share because they are among the few horses in the race that can handle the surface. Boom Champ won a qualifier last season at this distance on this surface and beat all of the top contenders.The three top contenders, not surprisingly, are Fourstardave, Cozzene, and Toc Black Mamba. Fourstardave loves the distance and is a versatile horse who can handle the surface but seems to do a bit better on the dirt. Toc Black Mamba was going to be my top pick, but I "changed my mind at the window". You know how that goes! He will probably win for sure! At the last moment, I went to Cozzene in this race. The real life Cozzene was a top grass horse and this tough colt wears the name well. He looks tough at the distance on a good track and is my pick to win it all. Good luck to all. Bob
No comments:
Post a Comment