Bigbob previews Digiturf.com's upcoming Dubai Muddy CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES!

Distance 2400 Track Dubai Muddy

Chrisman's has a 3 horse entry in the finals. His top horse was a big mid-season purchase. Kalinisi is a versatile colt who can handle a fast or muddy surface, although his chances would improve if the track was wet. His stable mate Ruler on Ice is a nice horse but he appears to prefer the shorter classic distances. The 3rd member of the entry, Linda's Chief shows winning a Kentucky Derby Qualifier at the distance on a fast track and could be a sleeper if the track is dry.

Evil Racing Ltd has a strong 3 horse entry in this race. He opened up the pocket book to purchase AP Secret Weapon this season. He has not been much of a secret, running well on multiple surfaces. He is a definite threat to win it all. Evil also has a serious threat with the Red Baron. If the track comes up fast, he could gun down his competition! Evil's other horse, Dallas Runner is a nice horse, but he does not appear to be at the level of Evil's other two horses.

Boom Stables has established itself as a top stable in a short period of time and has a big shot at its first championship with Boom The Greek. This big time colt burst on the scene in mid-season and established himself as a serious threat for top honors. He shows big efforts on both a fast and muddy track, although he may like the mud a little better.

Tockyocky Racing has a 2 horse entry in this race. Toc Man on Fire has been on fire this season and can run on a fast or muddy track, but the fire appears to go out at 2400. His other horse, Toc Pay Homage, has a win in a qualifier on a fast track and could be in the mix if he gets his favorite surface.

Filante Stable's Satin Planet is a smooth runner who could be a contender if the track is fast. He shows no races on an off track. 

Black Lotus's Dawn Lightning has a win in a qualifier at this distance on a muddy track. If the track is wet, he could come thundering home to victory. 

Bigtymers' Fierce Vengeance has a win in the mud in a qualifier. Although the win was at 2200 the horse shows being able to run every distance through 3200 and has a chance to contend if the track is wet.

Deeog's Quiet Prophet is an outsider in the race, but could surprise for a piece with some racing luck if the track is muddy.

Inxs' Dakota Rex seems to prefer the turf and does not show championship level efforts on the dirt at this distance.

RACE ANALYSIS

The muddy track for the finals eliminates several horses who seem to prefer a fast track to a muddy track. Nevertheless, this appears to be a wide open race with 4 or 5 horses having a legitimate chance to win it all.

I looked at the May 18th qualifier, run at today's conditions as a key race from a handicapping standpoint. That race was won by Dawn Lightning with Jack Ford aboard. AP Secret Weapon ran 3rd with Khaled Azzam, and Kalinisi was 4th with Adriana Menezes. Certainly Dawn Lightning could repeat that effort, but with better racing luck both AP Secret Weapon or Kalinisi could reverse the outcome of that race.

In addition to those 3, Boom the Greek and Fierce Vengeance have legitimate chances and must be respected. Quiet Prophet could sneak in for a share, although I do not see him as a contender for the top spot.

It is hard to pick a winner in this very open race. Kalinisi, who looks like the favorite here, only won 5 races this season. AP Secret Weapon, who looks like a strong contender, only won 3 races. In contrast, Boom the Greek won a third of his races while Fierce Vengeance has 13 big wins.

Its a tough race. Off of the May 18th Qualifier, Kalinisi and AP Secret Weapon must be respected, and I am picking AP Secret Weapon to win it all with Kalinisi a close 2nd choice. In this wild race, either Boom the Greek, Fierce Vengeance, or Dawn Lightning could pull off an upset.

Good luck to all. Bob

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